Official monitoring of the Chenab River flow at Marala (excluding Jamu and Manawar Tawi) is being conducted by the Irrigation Department, Government of Punajb, Pakistan. The monitored data is shared by the Irrigation Department with the office of Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters. The data so received indicates that the discharge of Chemab River (mainstem) have successfully stabilized following a significant period of volatility.
Hydrological records from the first half of December 2025 confirm that an extraordinary reduction in flows was observed, persisting from December 10 to December 16, 2025. During this window, the river flow frequently dropped and the lowest flow observed were 870 cusecs, which was significantly below the historical 10-year minimum range of approximately 4,018 to 4,406 cusecs for those dates. In order to assess the reason for extraoridnary reduction in flows of Chenab Main at Marala, a significant reduction in surface area of Baglihar has been observed on a satellite imagery of 8 December 2025 which was increased as per the imagery of 13 December 2025. This reduction followed by increase in the surface area of Baglihar reservoir leads to believe that India has emptied Baglihar reservoir followed by its refilling. It is clarified that according to the Indus Waters Treaty, India cannot empty the dead stroage of the reservoirs of the run-of-river hydroelectric plants developed on the Western Rivers. Pakistan’s Commisioner for Indus Waters has taken up the matter with the Indian Commissioner for Indus Waters and asked for the details/data relating to extraoridnary reduction in flows of Chenab River, under the framework of the Indus Waters Treaty.
Improvement and Recovery: A positive shift in river hydrology began on December 17, 2025, as the river flow began to rise steadily. By 07:00 hrs on the 17th, the flow reached 6,399 cusecs, effectively entering the historical ten-year range for the first time since the mid-month decline.
Punjab Irrigation Department data indicates that as of December 19, 2025, the river flows are presently within the last ten-year range of maximum to minimum flows. For instance, recent readings on the 19th show flows of 4,505 cusecs and 6,494 cusecs, which align with or exceed historical expectations for this time of year.
Continuous monitoring will remain in effect to ensure that water management strategies adapt to any future fluctuations.
Any information being provided from the sources other than the offiice of the Pakistan Commissioner for Indus Waters carries no effect wahtsoever.
