The risk of covariate shocks is
particularly high in Pakistan, as the country is prone to natural hazards –
including floods, cyclones, droughts, earthquakes, landslides, avalanches and
tsunamis as well as armed conflict and civil unrest that cause loss of life,
damage to infrastructure and massive displacement. On average, approximately 3
million people in Pakistan (1.6% of the population) are affected by natural
catastrophes each year, with damages and losses estimated to have exceeded $18
billion over the past decade. Exposure and vulnerability to hazards varies by
Province/district
and is exacerbated by population growth, rapid urbanization, environmental
degradation and shifting climatic patterns. With a poverty rate of 30%,
socio-economic status is considered the biggest single determinant of
vulnerability to disaster risk.
The
Pakistan government has a rich history of delivering cash transfers for
emergency relief and recovery since the earthquake of 2005 which provided a
‘wake-up call’ on the need for effective disaster-response systems. Most
experiences to date have not been conceptualized as part of the social
protection system, but rather as standalone emergency interventions or through
Disaster Risk Management (DRM) structures. Such experiences were consolidated
after the floods of 2010 through the Citizen’s Damage Compensation Programme
(CDCP) which provided immediate relief and early recovery assistance to over 1
million families. In the context of devolution, the provincial government of
Punjab has developed its own cash-based flood response programme – the
Khadim-e-Punjab Imdadi Package – operated through the DRM system as the most
important rehabilitation intervention and source of cash transfers for
disaster-affected populations in the province. Cash transfer programmes
elsewhere have responded to displacement due to operation against militancy
(such as support in 2016-17 to over 330,000 Temporarily Displaced People in the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas) through World Bank assisted TDPs and Rehabilitation
Project. NGOs and humanitarian agencies have contributed significantly to
national relief and rehabilitation efforts through the implementation of
emergency cash transfers.
The
role of social protection in disaster response has not been clearly
articulated. Benazir Income Support Programme is the main national social
safety net programme of Pakistan established in 2008 under an act of Parliament
currently extending benefits to more than 5.6 million families with a quarterly
assistance of Rs. 4834/-. Recently a conference on the role of Social
Protection in shock responsiveness was held in Peru where all Latin American
countries were invited to discuss the future role of social protection programs
in the shock responsiveness where I had the chance to attend to represent
Pakistan, the only country invited from Asia.
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PR
No. 72
It
has been learnt from the conference that keeping in view the established
systems i.e. National Socio Economic Registry of more than 155 million
populations with household GPS reading and effective payment mechanisms to
transfer funds, BISP considered its key role in transferring assistance to
affected population in the major disasters. BISP had transferred funds to
affected population by the disasters in the past but it was only limited to its
beneficiaries. A platform for moving
forward on shock-responsive social protection could be established by
leveraging BISP either as a programme or through its underlying systems – in
particular the NSER database, its close connections with NADRA, and its
diversified payment system to respond to shocks. The first option, working
through BISP as a programme, could be to ‘top up’ transfers to existing
beneficiaries (‘vertical expansion’) so that they could receive
additional financial support after a disaster. The rationale is premised on the
understanding that BISP’s target group (a subset of the poor identified through
a proxy means test with a cut-off score) are some of the least resilient in a
disaster and likely to be in need of this additional support. Vertical
expansion would leverage BISP’s systems, all of which function well (though
there has not been an assessment of the resilience of BISP systems in times of
crisis, which would be a critical aspect to ensure in advance in relation to
all of the options. If this can be
established, and if vertical expansion to BISP beneficiaries were used in times
of crisis, this would remove the need to establish parallel processes for
targeting, enrolment or delivery of cash to these beneficiaries. The second option of enrolling additional
households into BISP temporarily at times of disaster (‘horizontal expansion’)
could also be considered, drawing from the set of households who are registered
on the NSER but do not receive a transfer because they are above the poverty
score cut-off for admission into BISP. This could address the issue of
population coverage while still taking advantage of existing systems. The
NSER’s high national coverage (higher than most other social registries
worldwide and currently being updated and expanded) and its linkages to the
‘CNIC’ national ID database provide a strong platform for implementing such an
approach. National coverage of BISP and its large existing caseload of some of
the poorest households in the country could facilitate a measured response to
disasters. An updated NSER could be utilised for rapid identification of
caseload; this can be through the potential inclusion of household GPS
coordinates and indicators of climatic and livelihood vulnerability in the
updated NSER. It has been learnt that many Latin American Countries are
handling the assistance through their established social protection systems
instead of establishing new programs which is not only delaying the process of
disbursement of assistance but also caused lot of additional administrative
cost on national exchequer.
It is pertinent to highlight here that
effective coordination amongst relevant stakeholders i.e. BISP, NADRA, NDMA,
PDMA, NGOs, ERRA and financial service providers is a key to handle the
disaster situation in an efficient manner. Role of each stakeholder should be
defined to handle the shocks in a systematic way to avoid duplication of
efforts. I feel it is the high time that all stakeholders should sit together
for preparation of joint implementation plan identifying roles and
responsibilities of each stakeholder for handling the shocks and disasters
effectively and BISP is ready to take lead as country’s main social protection
programme for inviting all the stakeholders at one place. BISP is planning to
hold national conference on shock responsiveness where all Federal and
Provincial stakeholders involved in the relief work at the time of disaster
will be invited to prepare a joint plan on shock responsiveness.
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